by Saad Kaiwan*
This is probably the most difficult point in the history of Hezbollah and its leader Hassan Nasrallah. The protesters are not leaving the streets, and the government that Nasrallah engineered to protect himself is falling apart. Things have reached a point where Nasrallah, for the first time ever, appeared speaking with the Lebanese flag behind him, in an attempt to appear as a statesman. In his speech, he defended the government and the President, and called for gradual reforms that he believes cannot be achieved in the streets. Nasrallah appeared wary of the streets and squares which have been filled with hundreds of thousands of Lebanese citizens who are demanding a complete overhaul of the country’s political system, in an unprecedented uprising that pervaded all of Lebanon, from north to south to the Beqqa Valley.
Lebanon is witnessing a second uprising in less than 15 years. The first uprising, known as the “Independence Intifada,” or the “Cedar Revolution”, forced Bashar al-Assad to withdraw his army from Lebanon in 2005, freeing the country from Syrian tutelage, and restoring its sovereignty and freedom. At the same time, this led Hezbollah to the political and security front in Lebanon, replacing the Syrian army.
The current uprising is indeed the “Spring of Lebanon”; an uprising independent of any political parties and ideologies. An uprising that, for the first time ever, through its demands, has united various social strata, religious sects and regions in the country. All of Lebanon is demanding the ruling elite to step down.
The protests have entered their second week. The momentum of the protests is rising day by day, and the youth are firmly determined despite the attacks from Hezbollah’s “Black Shirts” in squares in the centre and especially south of the capital Beirut. This is precisely what worries the ruling elite in Lebanon, who seem incapable of absorbing what has happened, and are determined not to make any concessions to the Lebanese whose demands are purely social, concerning employment, health insurance, electricity, and water. These Lebanese are tired of the government’s empty promises, procrastination, corruption and pointless deals. The rights demanded in the protests are rights that are demanded by all Lebanese, including Shias in areas under Hezbollah’s control in the south and in the Beqqa Valley. That is why the protesters have been shouting the popular slogan “All of them means all of them,” meaning that all of Lebanon’s ruling elite, with no exceptions, are corrupt, and must all step down. It is precisely this particular slogan that annoys and angers Nasrallah, as it puts him in the same bracket as the rest of the country’s ruling elite, and considers him as corrupt as them. This is what prompted Hezbollah’s notorious “Black Shirts” to attack protesters with sticks and stones prior to Nasrallah’s speech; a speech in which he accused some of the protesters of receiving payments from foreign embassies, saying that he believes these protesters have deviated from the protests’ initial correct path and that they have become in service of the US, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
The same accusations were made by the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei against the Lebanese and Iraqi protesters. Khamenei described the peaceful anti-government protests in Lebanon and Iraq as “riots.” His remarks came as Hezbollah supporters attacked protesters in the city of Nabatieh in southern Lebanon a few days ago with knives and sticks. One protester was killed in the attack. The attack, however, failed in deterring the people of Nabatieh from returning to the streets to continue protesting.
Nasrallah’s predicament is the same as that of Iran. The people are rising up in countries that the Mullahs in Tehran have repeatedly stated they are in control of, i.e Lebanon and Iraq. Nasrallah’s main problem in these widespread protests is the unprecedented Shia rebellion in key Shia cities in the south, such as Tyre and Nabatieh, and in cities in the Beqqa Valley such as Baalbek and Brital, to name a few. Nasrallah sees the protests in the Shia regions of Lebanon as a threat to Hezbollah’s control over these areas. This is why, in an attempt to distort the image of the protests, Nasrallah questioned why the protesters did not shout any slogans against Israel and in support of the “resistance.” This is also why pro-Hezbollah protests followed his speech in southern Beirut, Tyre and Nabatieh. In these protests, pro-Nasrallah slogans were shouted. Anti-government protesters responded to Nasrallah by arguing that he cannot come out in defence of the government and also claim to care about the interests of the Lebanese people, especially since he has set up a mini-state within the Lebanon. Hezbollah possesses illegitimate weapons it receives from Iran. Hezbollah uses these weapons to impose its will on the rest of Lebanon. Hezbollah’s influence goes as far as having the final word on the country’s internal as well as external and foreign policy. This is Lebanon’s main problem.
It has also become difficult for Nasrallah to convince some of his own supporters that he is not as corrupt as the rest of the ruling elite, and that his party bears no responsibility for the state Lebanon finds itself in. The same claims of innocence are made by the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the party of President Michel Aoun. The FPM consider Aoun to have been in power for 3 years only. This is while both Hezbollah and the FPM have had a continuous presence and have participated in every government since the assassination of Rafic Hariri in 2005. These two parties and their allies make up the majority in the government and are also in charge of important ministries such as the ministry of energy and the ministry of health. They are therefore able to pass any reform bills or anti-corruption laws, but they have not. Hezbollah has also not been able to remove the suspicions of corruption that surrounds it. Hezbollah takes a share of the revenues and customs at the ports and airports, and also controls all types of trade as well as the transport and smuggling of goods through legal and illegal crossings at the Lebanese and Syrian borders.
As a result, some of Hezbollah’s allies believe that the party is beginning to adapt to the power structure in Lebanon, defending the current system of government, and taking opportunistic stances alongside the rest of the corrupt ruling elite. Some go even further and accuse Nasrallah of over-emphasising the sectarian structure and character of Hezbollah, and becoming a part of the sectarian government; sitting with the enemies of the resistance as well as rejecting the calls for the government to resign and have early elections. They also criticise Nasrallah for accusing the revolutionary Lebanese youth of espionage and taking orders from foreign countries, as well as his defence of the reforms card adopted by the government. These allies of Hezbollah believe that the reforms promoted by the government only serve the interests of the Western countries that funded and organised the “Cedar Conference” to back the reforms. They believe that these countries are only seeking to privatise public property in Lebanon to further increase their influence in the country.
The uprising in Lebanon has presented the government, and particularly Hezbollah and the Mullahs’ regime in Iran, with a series of challenges. We have reviewed some of these challenges, but the most important and most serious challenge is the nature and comprehensiveness of this “revolution,” and how much it has spread in every square, every city, every village, and every neighbourhood of the Lebanese towns and cities, and especially in the Shia cities. This is what is making these protests difficult to put an end to, or even contain. This is the revolution of the youth of the Internet generation. A generation with no political experience or skills, but a generation that knows what it wants. A generation that possesses the will and determination to achieve its goals. A generation that has overcome the sectarian, partisan and regional barriers. A generation with a collective, civilised, and especially non-ideological way of operating.
The uprising’s lack of an official and public leadership has disabled Nasrallah from intervening in and influencing the protests. This prompted him to publicly demand the protesters to form and reveal their leadership. The weapon of the youth is their lack of confidence in the ruling elite. Nasrallah and most of the ruling elite have not yet realised that what has happened is beyond them, and that Lebanon has entered a new stage, regardless of the fate and consequences of the “revolution.”
Following the resignation of the government and its Prime Minister Saad Hariri, what the ruling elite are trying to do now is to buy time, and circumvent and evade the demands of the protesters; demands which insist on the formation of a neutral, technocrat government, made up of specialists who do not belong to the parties of the ruling elite. A government which would work to address the economic and financial situation in order to prevent total collapse. What would follow then is a fairer, more representative electoral law, and then new elections. This plan is rejected by both Hezbollah and the FPM. Hezbollah, which was strongly against the resignation of the government, used the government as a shield against US and international sanctions. As for the FPM, the resignation of the government means the exit of its founder President Aoun, and its current leader Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil.
All behind-the-scenes debates and negotiations now revolve around how to re-polish the image of the ruling elite by forming a government of non-corrupt characters; characters who must have the streets’ approval. And that is the biggest challenge for the youth of today’s revolution.
* Saad Kaiwan is a Lebanese analyst and former Director of Samir Kassir Foundation
The opinion expressed do not necessarily reflect those of ITC
