Reports this week say that Russia is transferring units from Syria to aid its efforts in Ukraine. Claims that Iran might benefit from this by somehow moving its units, or partner forces, to backfill areas the Russians are leaving would appear to underline Iranian benefits from Russia’s movements. But it is not entirely clear if Iran can move units into areas the Russians are leaving, or if the Russians really are moving units out at all, or merely rotating units around.
Another possibility is that reports Russia is moving units is leaked information designed to make it look like it is failing in Ukraine, or to cause other informational chaos regarding Syria and Iran. Even if Moscow is moving out of areas in Syria, this may not benefit Iran because while Tehran prefers to use Syria as a launchpad for its threats, it prefers to hide behind the Russian role there, which had conferred some supposed legitimacy and security for the Syrian regime. With less Russia in Syria, Iran could be more exposed, even if it takes short-term advantage.
What is known is that Syrian regime leader Bashar Assad met with the Iranian leadership on Sunday, the same day as the reports emerged. The report at the Moscow Times said that “Russia has begun the process of withdrawing its military forces from Syria and is concentrating them at three airports before being transferred to the Ukrainian front.”
This is supposed to “speed up” the Russian campaign in Ukraine, which has faced many setbacks. Russia held its May 9 Victory Day celebrations on Monday. “The abandoned air bases of the Russian Federation are transferred to the Iranian military-political formation ‘Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ and the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah,” the Moscow Times report said.
A REPORT at the Alma Research and Education Center on May 8 noted that “until the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Syria was the most extensive arena [where] the Russian military was deployed permanently.” The report said that the “Russian military force in Syria consisted of around 10,000 soldiers in 12 bases (two main ones: Tartus and Hmeimim, and ten smaller ones) and various assorted field outposts.
Read more: https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-706230
