Given Afghanistan’s recent history, political upheavals, occupations/withdrawal of foreign forces, it is difficult and perhaps impossible to form an integrated unity government that encompasses all ethnic groups. The Taliban’s pace of return to Afghanistan was unprecedented and without any plan for governance. Therefore, based on previous experiences, Taliban have neither status among people, nor does cover all ethnicities that make up Afghan population, to enable to form a unity government.
Since the coup d’état, carried out by communist forces against the Kingdom of Afghanistan in 1978, the People of Afghanistan have never had a coherent central government. After the overthrow of the Kingdom, at least three local warlords have ruled in the country, including Gulbadin Hekmatyar, Ahmad Shah Massoud, and General Abdul Rasheed Dostum. Although, the Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, which was established by the Soviet Union military power, also ruled in Kabul for ten years.
The warlord forces campaigned against the communist central government continually, until the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1988. The Afghan mujahideen, led by Ahmad Shah Massoud in coalition with General Dostum, forced the withdrawal of the Russians from Afghanistan and the socialist government collapsed. It is worth noting that at this point of time the country’s armed forces also disintegrated, and the Afghan civil war continued until 1995. The Taliban, with support from Pakistan, managed to dominate many provinces and in 1999 succeeded in forming a radical Islamic government in Kabul.
During the Taliban’s reign, terrorist groups were formed in Afghanistan, most notably the al-Qaeda terrorist organization led by Osama bin Laden. In 2001, al-Qaeda attacked New York’s commercial towers by aircraft suicide mission, kamikaze, killing several thousands. This was a severe blow to the U.S. security and intelligence services. It is speculated that the Islamic regime in Iran, had worked closely with the Taliban and al-Qaeda in carrying out New York suicide bombing.
After the attack, the U.S. President George W. Bush called Iran, Afghanistan, and Iraq the axis of evil, and launched a U.S. invasion of Afghanistan against the Taliban. Taliban leaders fled to Pashtun areas in Pakistan. Since the invasion, Taliban militants have conducted gruella warfare against the coalition forces. Clashes between the Taliban and coalition forces continued for 20 years. The consequences of this campaign forced American government to change their foreign policy to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan. During the 20 years of occupation, coalition forces-imposed their presidents to govern Afghanistan. This imposition created a corrupt system of governance, which never allowed a democratic government to be formed.
Also, one of the aims and objectives of the coalition forces was reconstruction and training of Afghan armed forces, ensuring the newly restructured and trained army could withstand against Taliban, defending the nation and the integrity of the government. This aim and objective seemingly have failed, as the Afghan army once again was disintegrated at the announcement of the U.S. withdrawal.
The untimely withdrawal of the coalition forces, collapse of Afghan government, and disintegration of Afghan army have created several issues. Declaration of a date for withdrawal has mostly been based on an agreement with the Taliban! Negotiations with the Taliban began during Trump’s presidency and were concluded by Mr. Biden, and as one has noted “Trump loaded the gun, but Biden pulled the trigger prematurely.” With the announcement, ordinary people and Afghan armed forces lost the will to stand against Taliban, and the Taliban ran over Afghanistan unexpectedly in a couple of weeks. The fear of being killed by militant has created unimaginable confusion and mayhem in the country, in particular at Kabul’s airport where most evacuations are taking place.
In this regard, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair has noted Biden’s decision tragic, dangerous, and unnecessary. Tony Blair was Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the time of the invasion in 2001. Britain armed forces entered the War alongside the United States. On Saturday, August 21, 2021, he denounced the coalition’s untimely withdrawal “unnatural, non-strategic, dangerous, and unnecessary act of loss.” He further noted “Leaving Afghanistan was neither in the interests of the Afghan people nor in our interests,” Blair said “Russia, China and Iran will take advantage of this unnecessary withdrawal, and from now on, whoever receives commitments from the western leaders will consider it unsustainable.”
According to a report in Radio Farda, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a Taliban leader and founder member of Taliban movement, arrived in Kabul on Saturday, August 21, to talk with other members of the group and Afghan politicians hoping to form a new unity government (1). Brothar is Taliban’s second-in-command following Haibatullah Akhundzada. Reuters news agency also reported on Saturday, citing a Taliban spokesman saying, “the Islamist group plans to launch a new government framework for Afghanistan”.
The Taliban has not yet announced its type of government, but it can be speculated that the radical Islamist group will establish its governance based on sharia laws of Islam. Given the traditional ethnocentrism in Afghanistan and the lack of a national military/security force, the likelihood of a unity government to govern Afghanistan is low. The Taliban is a radical Pashto Sunnis group, they would never accept Shia Islam which is a breakaway from main core of the religion. A high percentage of Afghans are Shia Muslims. Therefore, there is a naturally ethnic and religious divide that would not allow Taliban to form a unity government. However, it can be speculated Gulbadin Hekmatyar, leader of the Gulbadin Muslim Party, will join Taliban to form the next government in Kabul. Gulbadin Hekmatyar is also a Pashto Sunnis!
Further, Ahmad Shah Massoud’s son, Ahmad Massoud, is attempting to form a para-military group in Panjshir Valley to confront Taliban, with possibility of coalition with General Haibatullah Dostum. Afghan armed force personnel have already joined these anti-Taliban forces. They have been very angry that the Taliban have replaced Afghan national flag with the Taliban’s. In The Baghlan area, Taliban flags have been pulled down and replaced with Afghan national flags. Another character in the Panjshir Valley is the former Vice President Amrullah Saleh, who considers himself the interim president of Afghanistan, after president’s Ashraf Ghani’s scape
The Washington Post reported Saturday, August23, that many ethnic groups and tribes hope to form a national coalition government with the Taliban through negotiations. In this regard, former President Hamid Karzai, National Coalition Leader Abdullah Abdullah and Gulbadin Hekmatyar are attempting to negotiate with Taliban to make such a coalition possible. The Taliban have announced that tribal leaders must go to Kabul for finding a solution by means of conferencing, but there is no organization to provide security for those leaders, as the Taliban’s provision cannot possibly be trusted.
The likelihood that Taliban establishes a unity national government in Kabul is very low, if not impossible. Therefore, the destitute people of Afghanistan will once again, be plunged into, yet another civil war!
Commander Mohammad Farsi
23 August 2021
Ref:
https://www.radiofarda.com/a/taliban-leader-mullah-baradar-arrives-in-kabul-to-establish-new-government/31421271.html (1)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/anti-taliban-fighters-claim-victories-as-first-stirrings-of-armed-resistance-emerge/2021/08/20/24b433fc-01da-11ec-87e0-7e07bd9ce270_story.html?utm_campaign=wp_todays_headlines&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_headlines&carta-url=https%3A%2F%2Fs2.washingtonpost.com%2Fcar-ln-tr%2F3475dc9%2F6120cea99d2fda2f47019403%2F596b7f129bbc0f403f91ea06%2F8%2F59%2F6120cea99d2fda2f47019403 (2)
