Al-Arabiya news agency, Sunday August 29, 2021, made a remark about the Baghdad summit: “Will the chaos of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan be repeated with the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq?” (1). It should be noted that the Prime Minister of Iraq, after his recent visit to the United States, July 27, 2021, has also stated “U.S. forces will withdraw from Iraq by the end of the current year, 2021”.
At the Baghdad summit, the Iraqi prime minister announced that the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq will never be like Kabul! Iraqi military spokesman Brigadier Yahya Rasool also stated that Iraqi military and security forces, with years of experience fighting ISIS, have the necessary experience, and it is ready to carry out their duties well at any time. The U.S. still has approximately 6,000 troops in Iraq who have fought against ISIS along with security forces and the militias forces based in Iraq. At the time, the ISIS ruled over approximately 40 percent of Iraqi territory, and the Iraqi security forces alone were not able to oust them. The military spokesman added the readiness of the Iraqi armed forces may not be compared with that of Afghan’s army! He stated the Iraqi armed forces along with security services is quite capable of defending the country and its people!
Baghdad summit was attended by high-level politicians who represented several regional countries, including presidents of Egypt, France president, Emirates Prime Minister, Emir of Qatar, and King of Jordan. Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia were represented by their foreign ministers. It is noteworthy that the French president stated, after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, the French military will remain in Iraq. It can be speculated that Emmanuel Macron’s statement was due to the concerns raised by the al-Arabiya news agency, “Will the chaos of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan be repeated with the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq?” Further, French president stated no matter what decision is made by the USA regarding their troops in Iraq, French forces will not be withdrawn from Iraq! Mr. Macron also declared that French military already has the necessary capacity and capability to counter any terrorist act in Iraq.
It should also be noted that when ISIS held 40 percent of Iraq’s territory, the U.S. military, Iraqi’s, Iranian’s, Lebanese Hezbollah and other jihadist militias fought alongside the Iraqi security forces, and Ayatollah Sistani, Iraq Shia leader, decreed the formation of the People Mobilization Units (PMU). After invasion of Iraq, Iraq’s army was dissolved, hence the statement of the Iraqi army spokesman is somewhat doubtful! The Iraqi army was a cohesive army under Saddam Hussein’s command, but after the occupation in 2003, it was completely dissolved. After the defeat of ISIS however, the militia groups, PMU, continued. They include several groupings, the Badr Army, Kataib Hezbollah, and Kataib Ahl-e Haq, Sayyid al-Shuhada, and others, many of which were formed and organized by the Ghods Brigade of Iran Revolutionary Guard Core (IRGC-QF).
Currently, no detailed information is available about the Iraq’s army capability. And whenever the Iraqi government has faced terrorist acts by proxy militias, mostly affiliated with the Iranian regime, Iraqi security personnel have confronted these groups, but there has been no mention of the Iraq’s army participating. Reuters reported on Saturday June 25, 2021, that Iranian regime affiliated paramilitary forces had held a magnificent parade in Iraq to showcase their strength! In this military parade, the militias displayed tanks, boats, and ammunitions in Diyala province north of Baghdad. So far, despite the Iraqi prime minister’s efforts to disband the PMU, the force has continued to exist and operationally active. It must be said, after the departure of the coalition forces from Iraq, PMU will not simply disappear from the scene.
Since Mr. Biden assumed the U.S. presidency, militia proxies of the Islamic Regime of Iran have stepped up their attacks against the U.S.-led coalition military bases and interests in Iraq. On April 23, 2021, Kataib Hezbollah, influenced by the Islamic Regime along with the other Shiite militias within the PMU, formally declared its refusal to give up its weapons. Abu Ali al-Askari, a spokesman for the PMU, declared the mobilization forces will never be disbanded, and the Kataib Hezbollah will hand over its weapons only in the emergence of Imam-e-Zaman.
U.S. foreign policy is to withdraw all troops from the Middle Eastern region, especially from Afghanistan and Iraq. Afghanistan’s experience is very reflective. Perhaps, U.S. politicians may have learnt from the bitter experience of leaving Afghanistan, for better programming a safe withdrawal from Iraq? It is likely that the French president’s participation in the Baghdad summit, which was highly inharmonic compared with the regional participants, is very much related to Kabul chaotic experience. The U.S. also had a bitter experience of leaving Vietnam, but unfortunately that experience has not been utilized in preparing the effective departure from Afghanistan. Therefore, there is no conclusive evidence to support that the same experiences will not be repeated during withdrawal of troops from Iraq!
Simon Tisdale, Microsoft’s Media Reporter (MSN), wrote on August 29, 2021, that Kabul was only the beginning to make the U.S. coalition think again for fighting terrorism, when Mr. Biden had turned his back on them (2). The U.S. coalition’s campaign began 20 years ago to fight al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, it has now left the field to a malice enemy such as the Taliban and ISIS Khorasan (IS-K)! The result of 20 years of efforts to crush al-Qaeda has suffered a trouble defeat and ever since more terrorist groups have emerged throughout the world. Surprisingly, the United States has negotiated and has cooperated with its staunch enemy, such that it might have eased withdrawal!
Terrorist activities in the world is likely to increase. Afghanistan will be a safe operational and practical training haven for producing and preparing terrorists. They will continue carrying out terrorist acts in the western countries, especially in the U.S.A. As the western world has no ambition for arming and occupying countries or regime change any longer, it will have to choose new ways of fighting terrorism. Sanctions against terrorist-producing countries have not been successful, the United States has already experienced this, especially against the Islamic regime in Iran. Strike groups for special temporal action (project orientated) in the world may be a desirable option, but its effectiveness is also unpredictable. The most striking example occurred during jimmy carter’s presidency, operation Eagle Claws to rescue hostages at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, which failed.
After the Iran Revolution, the western world has attempted to appease the Islamic regime, but it has been proven that this appeasement has not paid off to prevent religious orientated terrorism. Inconclusive operations against terrorist groups have led to more terrorist groups evolving in many parts of the world. For example, the presence of the Islamic State terrorist group (ISIS) in Iraq and Syria, which appeared to have been suppressed, is a prime example. The ISIS now exists on the border between Iraq and Syria, and at times has launched terrorist operation, and will most likely reorganize itself and will become fully operational once again. Many other fundamentalist groups have formed across Africa, Asia, and the Middle East, which are far more difficult to control than when ISIS claimed an Islamic caliphate in Iraq and Syria!
Consequently, due to the lack of comprehensive planning, lack of the knowledge of jihadist groups, and especially lack of knowledge about the sources of the financial support sustaining them, and further safeguarding the economic interests of the west, the capitalist world has attempted to use diplomacy to contain terrorism. Experience has shown methods of diplomacy has never been effective for preventing terrorism.
Therefore, it should be realized, the global security across the whole world will not be possible until a decisive decision is made by the democratic governments of the world to act, find, and remove the funding sources of these groups, otherwise human rights and the global democracy will remain in a grave danger. Finally, it must be added that the Baghdad summit has not and will not provide a tangible outcome.
Commander Mohammad Farsi
August 30, 2021
- https://english.alarabiya.net/News/middle-east/2021/08/29/What-happened-in-Afghanistan-will-not-happen-in-Iraq-Iraqi-military
- https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/kabul-is-only-the-start-us-allies-feel-the-draught-as-biden-turns-his-back/ar-AANRsXV?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531
