The administration’s highest priority right now should be to incentivize the Ukrainian government to conclude a compromise peace agreement with Russia to provide Putin with a face-saving “exit ramp” to allow Russia to end the war.
Nearly two weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine, the United States, NATO, and the Russian Federation remain trapped in an escalation spiral of increasing economic sanctions, military actions, cyber exchanges, and nuclear threats that could escalate with potentially catastrophic consequences for the world. The cascading consequences of Russia’s invasion are eerily reminiscent of recent history when great power alliances transformed Eastern European conflicts into two unnecessary world wars that caused unprecedented destruction and the loss of tens of millions of lives. The more the United States continues to escalate its economic and proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, the higher the likelihood we will see history repeat itself. Eighty years ago, Imperial Japan’s surprise attack on Pearl Harbor in response to similar U.S. economic sanctions designed to strangle its economy provides a chilling reminder of how U.S. attempts to “collapse” Russia’s economy might be viewed as an existential threat by Moscow—potentially provoking them to retaliate with a surprise attack on U.S. critical infrastructure with cyber, Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP), or even nuclear weapons.
The war in Ukraine has the potential to drag on for another two to three months, killing tens of thousands of Ukrainians and destroying many, if not most, of its major metropolitan centers. The UN Commission on Human Rights has confirmed that approximately 550 Ukrainian civilians have been killed and nearly a thousand more have been wounded during Russia’s invasion, while over two million Ukrainians fled the country. While Ukrainian forces have enjoyed limited tactical successes in delaying Russia’s advance, the latter’s ultimate victory has never been in doubt given its overwhelming military superiority. Contrary to the popular media narrative, Russia has shown surprising restraint in refraining from using its most powerful weapons, including cyber, EMP, chemical, biological, and tactical nuclear weapons in an apparent attempt to minimize collateral damage. Russia could opt to utilize these weapons to end the war on its own terms much more rapidly and at a reduced cost in terms of Russian men and material. However, it could only employ them at the cost of causing a communications breakdown with the Ukrainian government, which would greatly hamper bilateral negotiations to end the conflict. In addition, the use of such weapons would also result in much greater Ukrainian civilian casualties, further inflaming Ukrainian (and international) public opinion against Moscow and making it much more difficult for a future Russia-friendly Ukrainian government to obtain popular support.
Read more: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-biden-can-end-war-ukraine-201132
