Shortly before dawn on Feb. 24, in an address to the nation peppered with falsehoods and grievances, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced plans to invade neighboring Ukraine for the second time. Moments later, Russian missiles began raining down on Ukrainian cities, marking the opening to the largest land war in Europe since World War II.
Four weeks later, 10 million Ukrainians have been forced to flee their homes—including half of the country’s children—and Europe has been forever changed.
Already the war has taken a number of unexpected turns. Having banked on a lightning assault to seize the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, Russian forces have been bogged down by a lack of basic supplies and poor morale, with NATO officials estimating that as many as 40,000 Russian soldiers have been killed, wounded, or captured in a month of fighting. Seven Russian generals have been killed on the battlefield, Ukrainian officials say.
Despite being significantly outgunned, the Ukrainian armed forces have fought harder and smarter than many had anticipated, successfully stalling Russia’s advance on Kyiv. With a clear win becoming ever more elusive for either side, analysts and Western officials fear that the worst may be still yet to come as Putin shows little signs of backing down and Russia’s indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian cities and civilian targets ramps up.
“There’s a broad fear setting in that it will get worse before it gets better,” said one Western European defense official, who spoke to Foreign Policy on condition of anonymity.
Foreign Policy spoke to more than a dozen U.S. and European officials, as well as leading military analysts and regional experts, about their assessments of how the conflict could evolve—or end. Many were quick to point out that war is inherently unpredictable. While there is little unanimity as to what the future may hold for Ukraine, five broad scenarios emerged as to what may be in store as the war marches on into its second month, with the eventual outcome likely to involve a combination of those outlined below.
Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/28/russia-ukraine-putin-war-what-happens-next/
